Value bet: Guarnizo to win @ 3.52 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCastro to win ✗44% · @1.93
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.47
Castro vs Guarnizo prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Castro v Guarnizo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 – Sunday 15 November, 17:00 WAT. Castro sit 13th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Guarnizo are 14th on 8 (in the bottom half). The gap is down to goal difference, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Castro – form over the last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Vimenor 0–3 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 2.0 per game.
Guarnizo – form over the last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Revilla 0–3 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Castro 1.4 – 1.2 Guarnizo in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 47% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Castro 44% · draw 23% · Guarnizo 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.78.
Value angle: Guarnizo to win at 3.52 – we make it 32%, the price implies 28%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Under 3.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Castro 1–1 Guarnizo. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Castro44%fair 2.26 · @1.93
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.12
Guarnizo32%fair 3.09 · @3.52
2.60Expected goals
1.40Castro xG
1.20Guarnizo xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Castro 1.4 – 1.2 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (ZoraTips)
Castro
Guarnizo
Attack vs Tercera División RFEF Group 3 average
-17%
-15%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.34
1.24
Our own ratings from every Tercera División RFEF Group 3 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castro to win✗
44%
2.26
1.93
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.78
Draw no bet
Castro (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Guarnizo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.24
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Castro to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castro / FT Castro✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.47
–
Recent results
Castro – last 6
LLLWLL
8 Nov
@ Vimenor
0–3
L
31 Oct
vs Barquereño
0–1
L
25 Oct
@ Naval Reinosa
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Escobedo
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Atlético Albericia
2–4
L
4 Oct
vs Tropezón
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 6
LLWLDD
7 Nov
vs Revilla
0–3
L
31 Oct
@ Solares
0–1
L
25 Oct
vs Selaya
1–0
W
17 Oct
@ Laredo
2–4
L
10 Oct
vs Bezana
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Torina
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castro and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Castro vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Castro have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guarnizo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Castro vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castro vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Castro 1–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Castro vs Guarnizo?
Castro vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
