Value bet: Firpo to win @ 1.72 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFirpo to win ✓62% · @1.72
Double chanceFirpo or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Firpo vs Alianza prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Firpo host Alianza in the Primera Division on Thursday 5 November, kicking off at 02:00 WAT. Firpo sit 1st with 40 points from 20 games (top of the table), while Alianza are 7th on 26 (in the bottom half). A 14-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Firpo – form over the last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with FAS 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.3 and concede 1.0 per game.
Alianza – form over the last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Atletico Balboa 0–1 on the road. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Firpo have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 4 Oct 2026, finished Alianza 2–2 Firpo.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Firpo 1.9 – 0.8 Alianza in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 50% for over 2.5, 54% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Firpo 62% · draw 24% · Alianza 14%.
Safer play: Firpo or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Firpo to win at 1.72 – we make it 62%, the price implies 58%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Firpo 2–0 Alianza. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Firpo62%fair 1.62 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.42
Alianza14%fair 7.21 · @4.26
2.64Expected goals
1.86Firpo xG
0.78Alianza xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Firpo 1.9 – 0.8 Alianza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Firpo vs Alianza?
On our numbers Firpo have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza 14%.
How many goals will there be in Firpo vs Alianza?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Firpo vs Alianza?
Our predicted score is Firpo 2–0 Alianza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Firpo vs Alianza?
Firpo vs Alianza (Primera Division) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
