Value bet: Castellonense to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCastellonense to win43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.51
Castellonense vs La Nucía prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 action on Wednesday 11 November: Castellonense take on La Nucía from 18:45 WAT. Castellonense sit 4th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top four), while La Nucía are 5th on 15 (in the top half). The gap is just 1 point, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Castellonense – form over the last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Alcoyano 3–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
La Nucía – form over the last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Atlético Baleares 2–1 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Castellonense 1.4 – 1.2 La Nucía in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 46% for over 2.5, 53% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Castellonense 43% · draw 24% · La Nucía 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Castellonense to win at 2.50 – we make it 43%, the price implies 40%.
ZoraTips prediction
We back Under 3.5 goals, rated at 74% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Castellonense 1–1 La Nucía. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Castellonense43%fair 2.33 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.90
La Nucía33%fair 3.00 · @2.62
2.55Expected goals
1.38Castellonense xG
1.17La Nucía xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Castellonense 1.4 – 1.2 La Nucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellonense to win
43%
2.33
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.88
1.83
Draw no bet
Castellonense (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
La Nucía +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Castellonense to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellonense / FT Castellonense
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.51
–
Recent results
Castellonense – last 6
LDDWLW
8 Nov
vs Alcoyano
3–4
L
31 Oct
@ Valencia II
1–1
D
27 Oct
vs Almeria
0–0
D
24 Oct
@ Intercity
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
2–3
L
4 Oct
vs Real Murcia II
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
La Nucía – last 6
WLLLLW
8 Nov
@ Atlético Baleares
2–1
W
1 Nov
vs Intercity
1–4
L
25 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellonense and La Nucía.
What is the prediction for Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Castellonense vs La Nucía?
On our numbers Castellonense have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and La Nucía 33%.
How many goals will there be in Castellonense vs La Nucía?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Our predicted score is Castellonense 1–1 La Nucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Castellonense vs La Nucía (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
