Value bet: Fratria to win @ 1.94 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultFratria to win60% · @1.94
Double chanceEither team to win86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.63
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.21
Nesebar vs Fratria prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Nesebar v Fratria in the Second League – Sunday 15 November, 13:30 WAT, Gradski stadion. Nesebar sit 14th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Fratria are 4th on 25 (in the top four).
Form guide
Nesebar – form over the last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Ludogorets II 0–2 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.
Fratria – form over the last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Sportist Svoge 6–2 at home. They are averaging 2.3 goals a game – a real threat going forward.
On form, Fratria have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Nesebar 1.0 – 1.8 Fratria in expected goals – roughly 2.7 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 52% for over 2.5, 57% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Nesebar 25% · draw 14% · Fratria 60%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.63.
Value angle: Fratria to win at 1.94 – we make it 60%, the price implies 52%.
ZoraTips prediction
Our tip: Over 1.5 goals, rated at 76% confidence at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nesebar 1–1 Fratria. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Nesebar25%fair 3.97 · @3.12
Draw14%fair 6.93 · @3.48
Fratria60%fair 1.66 · @1.94
2.73Expected goals
0.97Nesebar xG
1.76Fratria xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Nesebar 1.0 – 1.8 Fratria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fratria to win
60%
1.66
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.63
Draw no bet
Fratria (draw no bet)
71%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Nesebar +1.5 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.93
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.32
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.08
First team to score
Fratria to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fratria / FT Fratria
35%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Nesebar – last 6
LLLLDD
8 Nov
@ Ludogorets II
0–2
L
31 Oct
vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1–2
L
23 Oct
@ Hebar 1918
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia II
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Rodopa Smolyan
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fratria – last 6
WLLLWW
9 Nov
vs Sportist Svoge
6–2
W
28 Oct
vs Montana
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Botev Vratsa
1–2
L
9 Oct
@ Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0–2
L
3 Oct
@ Balkan Botevgrad
3–0
W
27 Sep
vs Spartak Pleven
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nesebar and Fratria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nesebar vs Fratria?
On our numbers Nesebar have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Fratria 60%.
How many goals will there be in Nesebar vs Fratria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nesebar vs Fratria?
Our predicted score is Nesebar 1–1 Fratria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Nesebar vs Fratria?
Nesebar vs Fratria (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
