Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.36 – our chance 39% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultLeganes to win39% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.41
Leganes vs Burgos prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Leganes v Burgos in the Segunda División – Friday 13 November, 20:30 WAT, Municipal de Butarque. Leganes sit 18th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Burgos are 3rd on 24 (in the top four). A 12-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Leganes – form over the last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Trival Valderas 1–0 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 2.0 per game.
Burgos – form over the last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Celta de Vigo II 2–1 at home. They score 1.8 and concede 1.2 per game.
On form, Burgos have the edge: 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Leganes 1.3 – 1.3 Burgos in expected goals – roughly 2.5 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 45% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Leganes 39% · draw 22% · Burgos 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Burgos to win at 3.36 – we make it 39%, the price implies 30%.
ZoraTips prediction
Our tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 75% confidence at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Leganes 1–1 Burgos. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Leganes39%fair 2.57 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.20
Burgos39%fair 2.59 · @3.36
2.52Expected goals
1.26Leganes xG
1.26Burgos xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leganes 1.3 – 1.3 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leganes to win
39%
2.57
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Leganes (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Burgos +0.5 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.31
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.69
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
1.03
First team to score
Leganes to score first
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leganes / FT Leganes
21%
4.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.41
–
Recent results
Leganes – last 6
WLLDLL
10 Nov
@ Trival Valderas
1–0
W
7 Nov
vs Albacete
1–3
L
2 Nov
@ Valladolid
3–4
L
24 Oct
vs Mallorca
1–1
D
16 Oct
vs Cordoba
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Almeria
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDWWWL
7 Nov
vs Celta de Vigo II
2–1
W
1 Nov
vs Castellón
1–1
D
29 Oct
@ Laredo
4–2
W
26 Oct
@ FC Andorra
3–2
W
18 Oct
vs Sabadell
1–0
W
12 Oct
vs Granada CF
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Burgos.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leganes vs Burgos?
On our numbers Leganes have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burgos 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leganes vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Leganes 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leganes vs Burgos?
Leganes vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Butarque.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
