Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
III Liga Group 4 action on Saturday 14 November: Jarosław take on Chełmianka Chełm from 13:00 WAT. Jarosław sit 12th with 18 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Chełmianka Chełm are 1st on 40 (top of the table). A 22-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Jarosław – form over the last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Busko-Zdroj 1–2 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 2.2 per game.
Chełmianka Chełm – form over the last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Chełmianka Chełm have the edge: 2.3 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Jarosław 1.2 – 1.9 Chełmianka Chełm in expected goals – roughly 3.1 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 60% for over 2.5 goals, 61% for GG. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Jarosław 26% · draw 16% · Chełmianka Chełm 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.46.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Chełmianka Chełm to win, rated at 58% confidence at odds of 1.86, above our fair price of 1.72, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Jarosław 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Jarosław26%fair 3.88 · @3.30
Draw16%fair 6.23 · @3.55
Chełmianka Chełm58%fair 1.72 · @1.86
3.07Expected goals
1.16Jarosław xG
1.92Chełmianka Chełm xG
61%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
1–36%
2–16%
From our goals model: Jarosław 1.2 – 1.9 Chełmianka Chełm expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chełmianka Chełm to win
58%
1.72
1.86 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
84%
1.19
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.64
1.46
Draw no bet
Chełmianka Chełm (draw no bet)
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Jarosław +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.17
First team to score
Chełmianka Chełm to score first
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Chełmianka Chełm ahead at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chełmianka Chełm / FT Chełmianka Chełm
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Jarosław – last 6
LDLLLL
8 Nov
@ Busko-Zdroj
1–2
L
31 Oct
vs Czarni Połaniec
2–2
D
25 Oct
@ Hetman Zamosc
0–1
L
17 Oct
vs KSZO 1929
1–3
L
10 Oct
@ Wisła Kraków II
1–2
L
3 Oct
vs Naprzód
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Chełmianka Chełm – last 6
WWWDWD
7 Nov
vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice
2–1
W
31 Oct
@ Busko-Zdroj
3–0
W
24 Oct
vs Korona Kielce II
2–0
W
17 Oct
@ Czarni Połaniec
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Star Starachowice
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Hetman Zamosc
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jarosław and Chełmianka Chełm.
What is the prediction for Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Our pick is Chełmianka Chełm to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.86.
Who will win Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?
On our numbers Jarosław have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Chełmianka Chełm 58%.
How many goals will there be in Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Our predicted score is Jarosław 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
