Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bolton to win @ 2.70 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBolton to win ✗42% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Derby vs Bolton prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Derby host Bolton in the Championship on Friday 6 November, kicking off at 21:00 WAT at Pride Park. Derby sit 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Bolton are 18th on 17 (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derby – form over the last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Norwich 0–4 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.
Bolton – form over the last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Charlton 1–0 on the road. On their travels they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.3 and concede 1.8 per game.
On form, Bolton have the edge: 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Derby 1.4 – 1.5 Bolton in expected goals – roughly 3.0 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Derby 37% · draw 21% · Bolton 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Bolton to win at 2.70 – we make it 42%, the price implies 37%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 79% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 Bolton. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Derby37%fair 2.69 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.40
Bolton42%fair 2.41 · @2.70
2.95Expected goals
1.43Derby xG
1.52Bolton xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.5 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolton to win✗
42%
2.41
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Draw no bet
Bolton (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Bolton to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolton / FT Bolton✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
LLDLLD
3 Nov
vs Norwich
0–4
L
31 Oct
@ Millwall
1–4
L
24 Oct
@ Sheffield Utd
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Stoke City
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ QPR
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
WLLDWL
3 Nov
@ Charlton
1–0
W
31 Oct
vs Bristol City
2–3
L
23 Oct
vs Middlesbrough
1–5
L
17 Oct
@ Southampton
0–0
D
13 Oct
@ Wolves
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Bolton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
On our numbers Derby have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bolton 42%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Bolton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Bolton?
Derby vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
