Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultMirassol to win44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.46
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Mirassol v Atletico-MG in the Serie A – Saturday 14 November, 22:30 WAT, José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol sit 14th with 40 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico-MG are 7th on 50 (in the top half).
Form guide
Mirassol – form over the last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 2–1 on the road. They score 1.0 and concede 1.0 per game.
Atletico-MG – form over the last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Gremio 1–1 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.
On form, Mirassol have the edge: 1.3 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Mirassol 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico-MG in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 50% for over 2.5, 60% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Mirassol 44% · draw 21% · Atletico-MG 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 3.50 – we make it 35%, the price implies 29%.
ZoraTips prediction
ZoraTips tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 72% confidence at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–1 Atletico-MG. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Mirassol44%fair 2.27 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.60
Atletico-MG35%fair 2.83 · @3.50
2.63Expected goals
1.41Mirassol xG
1.22Atletico-MG xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win
44%
2.27
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.26
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.67
1.75
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)
55%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Mirassol to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.46
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 6
WLDWLD
3 Nov
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–1
W
31 Oct
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
24 Oct
vs Sao Paulo
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Internacional
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Bahia
0–1
L
7 Oct
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
DLLLLL
7 Nov
vs Gremio
1–1
D
5 Nov
@ Botafogo
0–1
L
1 Nov
@ Gremio
0–2
L
29 Oct
vs Cruzeiro
0–1
L
27 Oct
@ Flamengo
2–3
L
21 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico-MG 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
